Introduction
Relations between Turkey and the European Union have been marked by complexity and fluctuation over decades of engagement. Recent high-level meetings between Turkish officials and EU representatives suggest potential shifts in this important relationship. This article examines the current state of Turkey-EU relations, recent developments, ongoing challenges, and prospects for future cooperation.
Historical Context
Turkey's journey toward European integration formally began with its application for associate membership in the European Economic Community in 1959, followed by the Ankara Agreement in 1963. Turkey's candidacy for full EU membership was officially recognized in 1999, with accession negotiations beginning in 2005.
However, the accession process has faced numerous obstacles over the years. The EU has expressed concerns about Turkey's adherence to democratic principles, human rights standards, and rule of law. From Turkey's perspective, there have been frustrations about perceived double standards, shifting goalposts, and the influence of geopolitical considerations on what should be a technical process.
Recent Diplomatic Engagement
In early 2024, several significant diplomatic exchanges have taken place between Turkish and EU officials. In January, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell in Brussels. This was followed by a visit from European Commission officials to Ankara in February to discuss technical aspects of cooperation.
These meetings have focused on several key areas: modernizing the Customs Union, addressing migration challenges, counterterrorism cooperation, and potentially revitalizing certain aspects of the accession process. Both sides have signaled willingness to improve dialogue, even as fundamental disagreements persist.
Economic Relations: The Customs Union Question
One of the most promising areas for progress is the modernization of the Customs Union agreement, which has governed trade relations between Turkey and the EU since 1995. Both Turkish and EU officials acknowledge that the existing framework is outdated and does not reflect current economic realities.
The EU remains Turkey's largest trading partner, accounting for approximately 40% of Turkey's total trade volume. Turkish business associations have advocated strongly for modernizing the Customs Union, arguing that an updated agreement could boost bilateral trade significantly and help address Turkey's economic challenges.
Technical talks on this issue have been more productive than discussions in more politically sensitive areas. However, some EU member states continue to link economic cooperation with broader political conditions, creating potential obstacles to progress.
Migration Cooperation
Migration management remains a central pillar of Turkey-EU relations. The 2016 EU-Turkey Statement on migration has been a cornerstone of cooperation, with Turkey hosting approximately 3.6 million Syrian refugees and preventing large-scale irregular migration to Europe.
Recent discussions have focused on the need for continued EU financial support for refugees in Turkey and addressing new migration challenges, including those arising from Afghanistan and other regions. Both sides recognize their mutual dependence in this area, even as disagreements persist about implementation details and financial commitments.
Political Challenges
Despite progress in technical areas, significant political differences continue to complicate Turkey-EU relations. EU concerns about democratic backsliding, judicial independence, and human rights in Turkey remain prominent. The European Parliament has been particularly vocal in its criticism of Turkey's domestic political developments.
From Turkey's perspective, there is frustration with what it perceives as EU interference in domestic affairs and insufficient recognition of Turkey's security challenges, particularly regarding terrorism. The Cyprus issue also remains unresolved, with EU member Cyprus able to block progress on many aspects of Turkey-EU relations.
The accession process itself remains effectively frozen, with no new chapters opened in recent years. However, neither side has formally abandoned the process, preserving it as a framework for engagement even as expectations of near-term membership have diminished considerably.
Regional Cooperation
Beyond bilateral issues, Turkey and the EU have shared interests in regional stability, particularly in the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean, and Black Sea regions. The Ukraine conflict has highlighted Turkey's strategic importance to European security, with Turkey playing a constructive role in facilitating grain exports and serving as a mediator.
Energy cooperation also presents opportunities, with Turkey potentially serving as a transit route for natural gas to Europe. However, tensions over maritime boundaries and energy exploration rights in the Eastern Mediterranean have complicated cooperation in this area.
Outlook for the Future
The current trajectory suggests a pragmatic approach to Turkey-EU relations, with both sides focusing on practical cooperation in areas of mutual interest while managing disagreements on more contentious issues. Full EU membership appears unlikely in the foreseeable future, but a more structured partnership with enhanced economic ties may be achievable.
Economic factors are likely to be a primary driver of engagement, especially given Turkey's current economic challenges and the EU's interest in economic stability in its neighborhood. Migration management will remain a key area of interdependence, necessitating continued dialogue and cooperation.
Conclusion
Turkey-EU relations have entered a new phase characterized by pragmatic engagement amid persistent differences. While the idealistic vision of Turkey's full integration into the EU has faded, the fundamental importance of the relationship to both parties ensures continued efforts to find common ground.
Success will require realistic expectations on both sides, a focus on tangible benefits from cooperation, and careful management of political sensitivities. The coming months will reveal whether the recent diplomatic momentum can be translated into concrete progress on the Customs Union, migration cooperation, and other priority areas, potentially opening a new chapter in this complex but essential relationship.
